Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 05 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 921 (S08W24) produced
two C-class flares. The largest of these was a C3/Sf flare at
05/1227Z. A Type II radio sweep was reported at 05/1730Z. Solar
observatories reported estimated shock speeds ranging from 1089
to 1541 km/sec. Although no significant flare activity was
observed at this time, H-alpha imagery indicates a DSF may have
occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There remains a chance of an isolated C-class flare from
Region 921.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 085 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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