Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 October 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 12 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remains
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet on 13 October. Expect quiet to
active levels on 14-15 October, with isolated minor storm conditions
possible on 15 October, due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 074 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 072/070/070 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 005/005-010/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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