Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 October 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 12 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet on 13 October. Expect quiet to active levels on 14-15 October, with isolated minor storm conditions possible on 15 October, due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Oct 074
  Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct  072/070/070
  90 Day Mean        12 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Oct  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  005/005-010/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%30%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%35%
Minor storm05%15%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

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