Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 October 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 11 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 14 October as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 074 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 072/072/070 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 005/008-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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