Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 24 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 910 (S09W32)
remains the only sunspot group on the visible disk and is now
magnetic classification alpha. Both the San Vito and Sagamore Hill
radio sites reported a Type II radio sweep with very similar times
(24/1526Z - 24/1532Z) with an averaged estimated shock speed of 660
km/s. San Vito reported plage fluctuations and surging that
coincided with the Type II radio sweep. An increase in x-ray flux
was observed during this period and reached the level of an A9.3
flare. No current imagery is available to aid in determining the
possibility that a CME may be associated with this radio event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region
910.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was active with multiple periods of minor
storming. Solar wind speed is approximately 650 km/s due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods
during the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 070 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 070/070/080 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 008/008-005/008-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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