Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 September 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 24 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 910 (S09W32) remains the only sunspot group on the visible disk and is now magnetic classification alpha. Both the San Vito and Sagamore Hill radio sites reported a Type II radio sweep with very similar times (24/1526Z - 24/1532Z) with an averaged estimated shock speed of 660 km/s. San Vito reported plage fluctuations and surging that coincided with the Type II radio sweep. An increase in x-ray flux was observed during this period and reached the level of an A9.3 flare. No current imagery is available to aid in determining the possibility that a CME may be associated with this radio event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 910.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was active with multiple periods of minor storming. Solar wind speed is approximately 650 km/s due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods during the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Sep 070
  Predicted    25 Sep-27 Sep  070/070/080
  90 Day Mean        24 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  016/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  008/008-005/008-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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