Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 September 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 23 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low with one C-class flare produced by Region 910 (S10W18). Seeing conditions at all optical sites have ranged from poor to non-existent so there is some disagreement in the magnetic classification of this region, however, a classification of Beta seems most likely. The San Vito optical site reported a Type II radio sweep from 23/1106Z - 23/1114Z with an estimated shock speed of 711 km/s. No current imagery is available to aid in determining the possibility that a CME may be associated with this radio event or in identifying the location of this event. Within an hour of the radio sweep GOES 11 experienced an enhancement of >1 MeV proton flux which peaked at 1800Z and is now decreasing.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There remains a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 910.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with one unsettled period. Activity is due to both the occurrence of a solar sector boundary crossing and the beginning of a coronal hole high speed stream now rotating into a geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels again today, however, at approximately 1930Z flux decreased to below the threshold level for the first time in several days.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels with some isolated minor storm periods. This activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Sep 070
  Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        23 Sep 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  001/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Sep  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  010/020-006/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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