Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 17 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with a minor storm period
observed by Boulder Magnetometer from 0900 - 1200Z. Solar wind
speed increased to about 500 km/s during the reporting period due to
the geoeffective coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods
on 18 September due to continuing effects from the coronal hole high
speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 19 - 20
September.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 078 Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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