Viewing archive of Friday, 15 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 15 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The largest flare of the
past 24 hours was a B8 flare from Region 908 (S13W60) at 15/0622Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, with
possible active periods on 18 September due to an expected coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 080 Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 080/080/078 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 005/005-008/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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