Viewing archive of Monday, 28 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 28 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 905 (S08W22)
produced a C1.8 flare during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a continued chance for C-class flares from Region 905.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions. The solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately
550 km/s due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active levels on 29 August due to the combination
of a partial halo CME observed on 26 August and the currently
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. On 30 August
conditions should abate to unsettled and then to quiet on 31 August.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 076 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 012/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 020/020-012/015-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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