Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 August 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 22 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. A long duration B-class flare was observed at 22/1324Z from Region 904 on the west limb. A faint and slow moving CME was first observed on the east limb by LASCO at 22/0636Z. As there were no front-sided events near in time to the CME, it is likely backsided and not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. Elevated solar wind speed due to a geoeffective coronal hole combined with an extended period of southward Bz produced active conditions during most of the day at mid and high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (23 - 24 August). Expect predominantly quiet conditions on 25 August.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Aug 081
  Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        22 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Aug  017/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  010/010-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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