Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 July 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 06 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate with a single M-class flare (M2/2F) occurring at 0836Z accompanied by type II and type IV radio sweeps. The estimated shock speed of the type II radio sweep was 565 km/sec. The M2 was associated with a disappearing solar filament (extent of 11 degrees) and a partial halo CME (plane of sky speed of 824 km/sec) from the southwest limb. Region 898 (S08W41) features a large negative polarity leader spot with a fragment splitting off to the southwest. There is an incursion of positive polarity flux penetrating the main spot. Region 899 (S05E56) was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an active interval from 05/2100 - 06/0300Z. The solar wind speed remains elevated due to a coronal hole high speed stream but has steadily declined during the past 24 hours. An enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons began around 1030 UTC in response to the M2 flare and CME. The maximum flux reached approximately 2 PFU. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for July 07 - 08. An increase to active, with a chance for periods of minor storm levels may occur sometime July 09 due to the arrival of the flank of today's CME.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Jul 085
  Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        06 Jul 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  018/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jul  012/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  007/008-007/010-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%35%
Minor storm05%05%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%35%
Minor storm05%15%30%
Major-severe storm01%10%25%

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