Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 05 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 898 (S08W28) produced
one C-class event, a C1 at 05/0858Z. Region 898 has grown slightly
but has remained unchanged in magnetic complexity. A new region, 899
(S05E69), rotated into view today. A slow, narrow CME was observed
in LASCO/C2 on the southwest limb, beginning at 04/2354Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (06-08 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during
the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm conditions prevailed from
04/2100Z to 05/0900Z. Conditions have been quiet to unsettled since
then. The enhanced activity is due to the presence of a high speed
coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active during the next 24 hours (06
July) due to the continuing effects of the high speed coronal hole
stream. As the coronal hole stream rotates past its geoeffective
location, geomagnetic activity should decline to quiet for the last
two days of the forecast period (July 07-08). No effects are
expected from today's CME.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 085 Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 010/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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