Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 June 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jun 07 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Activity consisted of
several B-class flares. Region 892 (S07E29) has grown in size and
magnetic complexity and developed a weak delta configuration.
Region 893 (S01E52) has also grown in size during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a good chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region
892. There is a slight chance also for an isolated M-class flare
from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly active the past 24 hours due to a
coronal hole high speed stream. The solar wind velocity remains
elevated at 550 - 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field is forecast
to be active for the next 24 - 36 hours (08 - 09/1200Z June) due to
persistence of the high speed stream. Activity levels are expected
to decline to quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast
interval (09/1200Z - 10 June).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 083 Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 086/089/090 90 Day Mean 07 Jun 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 015/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 021/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 020/025-015/020-007/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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