Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 May 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 06 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Activity
was limited to minor B-class flares. Region 881 (S12E68) has fully
rotated onto the visible disk and is a simply structured beta
complex. Region 882 (S12W19) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very to low levels. There is a chance that Regions 881 and 882
could produce an isolated C-class flare,
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions are due a favorably positioned recurrent coronal
hole which became geoeffective near 06/1530Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible on 07 and 08 May due to
coronal hole high speed stream effects. A return to quiet to
unsettled condition are expected on 09 May as the coronal hole
wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 087 Predicted 07 May-09 May 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 06 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 016/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 020/030-012/020-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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