Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 April 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 07 1509 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
865 (S11W60) produced two M-class flares today, an impulsive M1
event occurring at 06/0533Z and a second impulsive M1 event
occurring at 06/2042Z. The remainder of the observed flare activity
recorded during the period were B-class events. Region 865
underwent slight decay in sunspot area (530 millionths). This
region continues to depict a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region
869 (S12E24) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 865 has the potential for the
production of further impulsive M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A
sustained period of southward Bz was followed by active conditions
between 06/0900-1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels on 07 and 08
April. Isolated active to minor storm conditions are expected on
09 April due to a recurrent transequatorial coronal hole high
speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 099 Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 018/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 008/010-005/008-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
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