Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 April 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 05 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 867 (S16W26) produced
two C-class flares; a C2.6 at 05/1307 UTC and a C8.1 at 05/1521 UTC.
New region 868 (S07W06) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Regions 865
or 867.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Minor
storm periods were observed from 05/0900 to 1200 UTC and 05/1200 to
1500 UTC. Heightened activity was due to sustained periods of
southward Bz coupled with an increase in the total magnetic field.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with active periods possible on 06
April. On 07 and 08 April, quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 099 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 016/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 010/012-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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