Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 March 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Mar 22 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 862 (S06W51) produced an
isolated C2.1 flare at 21/2326 UTC along with numerous B-class
flares. This region retains its beta gamma magnetic configuration,
while there appears to be a decline in areal coverage. New Region
863 (N08W52) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An isolated active period
occurred between 22/0300 and 22/0600 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 23 March. On 24 and 25 March,
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with the possibility of
isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 076 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 005/008-008/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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