Viewing archive of Monday, 20 March 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Mar 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 862
(S07W27) continues to show growth in sunspot area and remains the
only spotted region on the visible disk. Magnetic analysis depicts
a weak gamma structure developing within the intermediate cluster of
sunspots. Multiple B-class flares were observed from Region 862
during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels today.
The elevated conditions are due to a favorably positioned coronal
hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods may be possible on 21 March due to a waning geoeffective
high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 077 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 024/037 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 020/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 010/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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