Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 March 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Mar 19 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. No
significant activity was observed during the period. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. The
elevated activity is due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream. Early in the period, the solar wind speeds increased from
550 km/sec to over 650 km/sec. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remained predominantly southward for
several hours prior to the occurrence of the major storm conditions.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels on 20 March due to
continued coronal hole effects. Predominantly unsettled conditions
are expected on 21 March as the coronal hole wanes. Quiet levels
are expected on 22 March.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 075 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 015/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 026/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 012/020-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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