Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 March 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Mar 18 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are
two simply structured spotted regions on the visible disk. New
Region 862 was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A
recurrent coronal hole became geoeffective just after 18/0700Z. A
period of minor storm conditions were observed at the Boulder
magnetometer between 18/0900 and 1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels though 19 and 20 March.
There is a chance for isolated periods of minor storm conditions
through the geoeffective stage of the favorably positioned coronal
hole. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 21 March
as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 072 Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 070/075/075 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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