Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 February 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Feb 22 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Unsettled to active
periods were due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high
speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from
approximately 700 km/s to 580 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 23 and 24 February as a coronal
hole high speed stream continues to be geoeffective. Mostly
unsettled conditions are expected on 25 February.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 076 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 015/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 010/020-010/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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