Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 January 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 26 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 848 (S20W66).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. An isolated
major storm period was observed between 26/1500 UTC and 26/1800 UTC.
The heightened activity was due to the influence of a high speed
coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with Isolated active
periods possible on 27 January. On 28 and 29 January, quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 087 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 012/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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