Viewing archive of Friday, 20 January 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 848 (S20E10) underwent
slow growth and developed minor magnetic mixing; however, no
activity of note was observed this period. The remainder of the
solar disk and limb was quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Region 848.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible on 23 January as a high speed coronal hole
stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 091 Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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