Viewing archive of Friday, 6 January 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 06 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 845 (N18E72)
emerged on the east limb as a Cao Beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 082 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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