Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 December 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 29 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Activity was at low levels. Region 843 (N12E27) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1/Sf event that occurred at 28/2238Z. Region 844 (S15W59) is a Cao beta spot group that was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Isolated active periods may be possible on 30 December due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 31 December and 01 January as the coronal hole moves out geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Dec 090
  Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan  090/090/085
  90 Day Mean        29 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  013/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Dec  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  008/010-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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