Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 21 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. The largest event
was a B4.4 flare from Region 835 (N19W81) at 21/1315Z. Region 837
(S11W32) remains the largest group on the disk with an area of 140
millionths. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
has declined steadily throughout the day from about 550 km/s to 450
km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (22 - 24
December).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 087 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 011/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 008/012-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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