Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 December 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 04 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 826 (S04W21) produced the only C-flare of the period; a C2.1 at 04/0945 UTC. New Region 831 (S06W07) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 826.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE decreased from approximately 680 km/s to 560 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with minor storm periods possible on 05 December due to transient flow from the 02 December CME. On 06 December quiet to unsettled conditions are expected. On 07 December, quiet to active conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
Class M35%30%25%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Dec 095
  Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        04 Dec 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Dec  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  012/015-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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