Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 01 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region
826 (S02E22) continued to show explosive growth in both magnetic
complexity and sunspot area. Magnetic analysis shows a strong
east-west neutral line through the delta spot in the geometric
center of the sunspot cluster. Region 826 produced multiple B and
C-class flares during the period, the largest was a C6 x-ray flare
occurring at 01/0837Z. Region 824 (S14W75) underwent little change
since yesterday but did produce a C2 x-ray flare at 01/0238Z, which
had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock
velocity of 487 km/sec. Region 828 (S04E42) is a rapidly emerging
DSO beta group that was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 826 has the potential to produce
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated
conditions are due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
The solar wind speed has ranged between 650 and 750 km/sec
throughout most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active conditions on 02 December due to a favorability
positioned coronal hole. Conditions should decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on 03 and 04 December.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 098 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 012/015-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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