Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 November 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 01 0021 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels today. Region 826 (S02E36) produced an impulsive M1 x-ray flare occurring at 30/1752Z. White-light observations in Region 826, depict a rapid growth phase in sunspot area since yesterday. This region has also developed in magnetic complexity, with beta-gamma characteristics evident. New Region 827 (N08E56) was numbered today and is currently a simply structured beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 826 is magnetically complex enough to produce further isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. A period of active conditions occurred at middle and high latitudes between 30/0900 and 1200Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Minor storm conditions with a chance of high latitude major storm periods are possible on 01 and 02 December due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. A return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 03 December as the coronal moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
Class M30%30%35%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Nov 095
  Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec  100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        30 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Nov  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  015/020-015/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%20%
Minor storm25%25%10%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%

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