Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 01 0021 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels today.
Region 826 (S02E36) produced an impulsive M1 x-ray flare occurring
at 30/1752Z. White-light observations in Region 826, depict a
rapid growth phase in sunspot area since yesterday. This region has
also developed in magnetic complexity, with beta-gamma
characteristics evident. New Region 827 (N08E56) was numbered today
and is currently a simply structured beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 826 is magnetically complex enough
to produce further isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
A period of active conditions occurred at middle and high latitudes
between 30/0900 and 1200Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Minor
storm conditions with a chance of high latitude major storm periods
are possible on 01 and 02 December due to a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream. A return to predominantly quiet to unsettled
levels is expected on 03 December as the coronal moves out of
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 095 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 015/020-015/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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