Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 27 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity levels were very low. There are just two
small sunspot groups on the visible disk. Region 824 (S14W20) is a
small bipolar sunspot group that has shown no significant change
over the past 24 hours. Region 825 (S03W10) is a small decaying
alpha spot group. No significant activity was observed on the solar
disk or limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. Isolated B-class flares are possible from Region
824. Two new small active regions are rotating into view on the east
limb, which may slightly boost activity levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed gradually increased
from 320 km/s to near 420 km/s by the end of the period. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was a high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 081 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 008/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 008/010-005/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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