Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 November 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 09 2257 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 820 (S16W81) produced a C1 flare at 09/0301 UTC. A erupting solar filament was observed on EIT imagery between 09/1948 UTC and 09/2148 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 820. Region 820 is due to rotate off the visible disk by 10 November.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 10 November. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 11 November due to a coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position. On 12 November, mostly unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
Class M05%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Nov 078
  Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        09 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  008/010-010/020-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%25%
Minor storm10%20%10%
Major-severe storm01%10%01%

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