Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 October 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 11 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare occurred in
newly numbered Region 814 (S06W11). This flare occurred in the large
plage field associated with old Region 808. A new small bipolar spot
group emerged in the northeast quadrant of the plage field. A Type
II radio sweep (437 km/s) also occurred with this flare.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a small chance for a C-class flare in newly
numbered Region 814.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed has
declined from 650 km/s to near 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 078 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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