Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 October 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 08 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 813
(S08W22) underwent further decay in sunspot area and magnetic
complexity. This region is now showing simple magnetic beta
characteristics. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to active
conditions. The elevated levels are due to a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream. The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft
increased from 400 km/sec at the beginning of the period to over 650
km/sec by 08/0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through
the first two days of the period (09 and 10 October). A chance for
isolated minor storming may be possible on 09 October. A return to
quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 11 October as the coronal
hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 078 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 016/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 015/020-012/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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