Viewing archive of Friday, 7 October 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 07 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 813
(S08W08) continues to show slow decay in sunspot coverage. The
magnetic gamma structure in Region 813 is weak, but remains intact.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 813 remains capable of producing an
isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 08 October. Mostly
active to isolated minor storm conditions may be possible on 09 and
10 October due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 079 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/010-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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