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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 06 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 813 (S08E05) showed a slight decay in the trailing portion of the sunspot group. The magnetic gamma structure in Region 813 has weakened during the period but remains intact. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 813 is capable of producing isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The onset of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream may result in active conditions on 09 October.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Oct 080
  Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        06 Oct 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Oct  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  005/005-005/010-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm01%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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