Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 October 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 05 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 813 (S08E18) produced a
C1 flare at 05/0822Z. This beta-gamma region continues in a growth
phase. A large plage field associated with old Region 808 (S10, L =
232) has rotated into view on the southeast limb. There are no
sunspots currently visible in white light imagery in this once large
and complex sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 813.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 081 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 008/008-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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