Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 October 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 05 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 813 (S08E18) produced a C1 flare at 05/0822Z. This beta-gamma region continues in a growth phase. A large plage field associated with old Region 808 (S10, L = 232) has rotated into view on the southeast limb. There are no sunspots currently visible in white light imagery in this once large and complex sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 813.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Oct 081
  Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        05 Oct 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Oct  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  008/008-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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