Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 October 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 04 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Old active
Region 808 (S10, L=232) is rotating into view on the southeast limb
and still appears relatively complex. Several B-class flares were
observed including a long-duration B7 flare at 04/0622Z. This
long-duration event was associated with a prominence eruption and
CME on the southeast limb. A large loop structure was also observed
near this location on EIT imagery. Newly numbered Region 813
(S06E30) emerged this period as a moderately complex and compact
beta-gamma group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Old Region 808, which is currently rotating onto the visible disk,
may produce C-class activity. Newly numbered Region 813 also has
C-class flare potential. There is a slight chance for an M-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 05 October. Isolated unsettled to active
periods are possible on 06 and 07 October.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| Class M | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 083 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 005/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 005/005-008/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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