Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 September 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 27 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 810 (N08W62).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An active period, observed between 0300 and 0600 UTC, was due to a prolonged interval of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm periods possible on 28 and 29 September, as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moves into geoeffective position. Conditions should decrease to mostly unsettled by 30 September.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Sep 077
  Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep  080/080/075
  90 Day Mean        27 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Sep  008/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  010/020-010/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

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