Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 September 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 20 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. There was a single C-class
event, a C1.2 flare at 20/0844 UTC. Region 808 was in decay as it
rotated around the west limb today. Region 810 (N10E37) developed
in area to a size of 250 millionths. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 088 Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 085/080/080 90 Day Mean 20 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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