Viewing archive of Monday, 19 September 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 19 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 808 (S11W78) continued
its rapid decay phase. Just a few C-class flares occurred, the
largest a C3 at 0350 UTC. One new region, Region 811 (S10E00)
emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The energetic electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was very high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to mildly active.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 091 Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 010/020-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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