Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 September 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 18 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 808 (S11W63) continued
to decay and simplify. Clouds and sensor outages made optical
verification difficult, but it is likely that Region 808 produced
the day's largest event, a C3 at 0433 UTC. Little else of
significance occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 808 may still yield an energetic event before it
reaches west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly active. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 102 Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 18 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 013/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 010/010-010/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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