Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 September 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 17 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 808 (S11W50) produced an M9/2n flare at 0605 UTC. The event included a radio burst of 1,000 sfu at 2695 MHz (tenflare) plus additional bursts across the spectrum. The event apparently did not include a CME. The region, though still potent, has declined in white light and simplified slightly in its magnetic structure. Newly assigned Region 810 (N10E78) rotated into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 808, though decaying, is still capable of energetic activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV geosynchronous electron flux was at very high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
Class M70%70%70%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Sep 104
  Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep  100/095/095
  90 Day Mean        17 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  011/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Sep  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  010/010-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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