Viewing archive of Friday, 16 September 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 16 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 808 (S11W37) produced three M-class flares. The largest of these was an M4.4/1b flare at 16/0149 UTC. The area of Region 808 has decayed to approximately 620 millionths; however, the region still exhibits a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active levels were the result of the high solar wind speeds early in the UTC day. The solar wind speed declined over the past 24 hours from about 750 km/s to about 625 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 08/0215 UTC and reached a maximum of 1880 pfu at 11/0425 UTC ended at 16/0025 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled levels for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
Class M70%60%60%
Class X40%30%30%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Sep 112
  Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        16 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  022/043
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Sep  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  008/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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