Viewing archive of Friday, 9 September 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 10 0521 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity increased to very high levels. Region 808 (S09E54) continues to be very active and produced five major flares today. Major flare activity is listed in chronological order: an X5/2b event at 08/2106Z, an X1 at 09/0300Z, an M6/1f at 09/0548Z, an X3 at 09/0959Z, and a long duration X6/2b at 09/2004Z which had associated Type IV and Type II (estimated shock velocity of 959 km/sec) radio sweeps. Region 808 is an extremely complex and compact spot group exceeding 1400 millionths of white light area. Magnetic analysis clearly depicts a very strong beta-gamma-delta configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at high to very high levels. Region 808 will continue to produce major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels today. The CME associated with the X17 event on 07 September was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 09/1315Z. This was followed by a 30 nT sudden impulse at the Boulder magnetometer at 09/1359Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 08/0215Z was further enhanced today. The current peak flux is 465 pfu which occurred at 09/2000Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 08/0405Z was also further enhanced today and was just under 8 pfu at 09/1920Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are expected on 10 September due to ongoing transient flow. CME activity associated with today's flares is expected to become geoeffective on 11 September and produce active to minor storm levels with isolated major storm periods possible. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected to continue through the next three days. The greater than 100 MeV proton event now in progress is expected to continue through 11 September. Today's X6/2b flare may enhance the existing proton events.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
Class M 90%90%90%
Class X 75%75%75%
Proton99%99%99%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Sep 099
  Predicted    10 Sep-12 Sep  100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        09 Sep 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Sep  012/025
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  015/020-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%35%
Minor storm 15%20%15%
Major-severe storm 10%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%45%40%
Minor storm 20%35%20%
Major-severe storm 15%20%15%

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