Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 September 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 08 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity remains at high levels. An X5/2b flare was in progress from Region 808 (S09E67) at the time of this writing. Moderate centimetric radio bursts are also in progress, including a 990 sfu Tenflare. Very active Region 808 is rotating into view as a large and complex sunspot cluster. Limb proximity is still hindering the analysis, but this compact spot group will likely exceed 1000 millionths of white light area. Numerous C-class flares and two M2 flares preceded the X5 event. New Region 809 (N10E60) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at high levels. Region 808 is a large and complex sunspot group capable of producing M and X-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A sudden disturbance of 41 nT (magnetic crochet) was observed in the geomagnetic field following today's X5 flare. A greater than 10 and greater than 100 MeV proton event occurred following yesterday's X17 flare on the southeast limb. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 08/0215Z and remains in progress. The peak flux so far was 87 pfu at 08/1950Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 08/0405Z and also remains in progress. The peak flux was 7 pfu at 08/1925Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event from a source on the east limb is extremely rare. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. The CME associated with yesterday's X17 flare was very large and very fast. Although the magnetic cloud associated with this CME is not expected to impact Earth, a shock passage is expected, which will likely produce active to minor storm periods on 09 Sep. Isolated active periods are expected on 10 and 11 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected to continue through 10 Sep. A further enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons will likely follow the anticipated shock passage on 09 Sep. Today's X5 flare may enhance the existing proton event. The greater than 100 MeV proton event will persist through 09 Sep.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 50%50%50%
Proton99%90%75%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Sep 094
  Predicted    09 Sep-11 Sep  100/110/110
  90 Day Mean        08 Sep 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  018/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Sep  008/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  020/025-015/020-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm 20%15%10%
Major-severe storm 10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%30%
Minor storm 30%20%15%
Major-severe storm 15%10%05%

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