Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 September 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 06 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity levels increased to moderate this period. A long duration M1 flare and an associated CME was in progress on the southeast limb at the time of this issue. The likely source of this event is old active Region 798 (S09, L=217), which is expected to rotate into view on 07 Sep. Old Region 798 was responsible for significant flare activity during its last transit across the visible disk, and was the likely source of several farside CMEs during the past two weeks. Region 805 (S12W59), the only active region with sunspots on the visible disk, remained quiet this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Old Region 798 is rotating onto the visible disk near S09, and is expected to significantly increase solar activity levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels on 07 and 08 Sep. Isolated active periods are possible on 09 Sep due to a high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
Class M40%50%50%
Class X05%10%10%
Proton01%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Sep 083
  Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep  090/100/105
  90 Day Mean        06 Sep 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Sep  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  005/005-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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