Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 September 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 04 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 803 (N10W65) produced a
long duration C2 flare at 1506 UTC. This event was associated with
the eruption of a large filament. Region 805 (S11W30) remains the
only region with spots on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance of a C-class event from Region 805.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Minor storming occurred between 0600 - 1200 UTC as Bz fluctuated
between +/- 5 nT and the solar wind speed increased from about 550
km/s to 750 km/s. At time of issue, solar wind speed was about 625
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 05 September, with a
chance for isolated minor storming due to the effects of the CME
associated with the long duration B4 flare on 01 September.
Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected on 06 September.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 07 September.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 075 Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 04 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 020/032 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 017/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 012/015-008/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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