Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 September 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 01 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 806 (S16E07)
continues to decay and is now an Alpha class magnetic group. Region
803 (N10W26) is now a plage region without spots. A large, bright
full halo CME first seen in LASCO imagery at 31/2230 UTC was
determined to have occurred on the far side of the sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class event
from region 806.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Minor
to major storm periods occurred between 31/2100 to 01/0600 UTC in
response to the corotating interaction region that became
geoeffective after 31/1000 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels on 2 September.
Isolated major storming is possible due to the arrival of the full
halo CME associated with the long duration C2 flare on 31 August.
Predominantly active conditions are expected on 3 September,
decreasing to unsettled on 4 September.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 079 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 017/036 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 022/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 025/030-020/025-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
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