Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 August 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 27 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 803 (N11E40) produced both of today's two C-class flares, a C2/Sf at 26/2202 UTC and a C1/Sf at 27/2051 UTC. Region 803 is the largest group on the disk (130 millionths) and has some magnetic complexity. The other spotted groups on the disk were quiet and stable. New spots emerged in Region 801 (N09W31) during the past 24 hours and newly assigned Region 805 (S08E73) rotated into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for 28-30 August. There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event from Region 803.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 28-30 August.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Aug 092
  Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug  090/090/085
  90 Day Mean        27 Aug 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  005/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Aug  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  007/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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