Viewing archive of Friday, 26 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 26 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 803 (N11E51) produced
two C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The region has some
magnetic complexity but is not growing at this time. The other
spotted regions on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event
from Region 803 during the next three days (27-29 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind
speed showed a steady decline with initial values around 620 km/s to
day end values around 520 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for 27-28 August and is expected to
be quiet to unsettled for 29 August.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 093 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 018/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 010/010-010/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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