Viewing archive of Monday, 22 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 22 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 798 (S11W62) produced
an M5/1n at 22/1727 UTC. This flare was associated with significant
radio output that included a 7100 sfu burst at 2695 MHz, 22000 sfu
at 245 MHz, and type IV sweep activity. This region also produced an
M2/1f flare at 22/0133 UTC that included significant radio output.
Both flares were associated with apparent earth-directed CMEs.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Another major flare is possible in Region 798.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. This activity is believed to be the result of a high-speed
coronal hole stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux passed the
10 pfu event threshold at 22/2040 UTC. This event resulted from the
M5 flare discussed in Part IA. Today's observed Penticton 10.7 flux
was flare enhanced. The daily background value reported in Part IV
was estimated to be 105 sfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
the next 24 hours. Storm conditions are possible on Aug 24 and 25
due to the CME activity which occurred today. The greater than 10
MeV proton event is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 80% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 157 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 010/010-020/025-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 60% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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